Focus: Developing and applying mathematical models to evaluate intervention strategies and support evidence-based public health decision-making.
Scenario Modelling
COVID-19 Vaccination Strategies in the Netherlands
Scenario modelling at RIVM (the Dutch National Institute for Public Health and the Environment) to anticipate the impact of COVID-19 vaccination strategies on disease outcomes in the Netherlands. A deterministic age-structured compartmental model (vacamole) was used to compare scenarios with respect to infections, hospitalisations, ICU admissions, and deaths — including analyses of vaccination in adolescents and children, rollout strategies, and booster campaign timing.
Ainslie, K. E. C., et al. A scenario modelling analysis to anticipate the impact of COVID-19 vaccination in adolescents and children on disease outcomes in the Netherlands, summer 2021. Euro Surveill. 2022. Read paper →
Ainslie, K. E. C. et al. The expected outcome of COVID-19 vaccination strategies. RIVM 2021. Read report →
Miura, F., Leung, K. Y., Klinkenberg, D., Ainslie, K. E. C., Wallinga, J. Optimal vaccine allocation for COVID-19 in the Netherlands: A data-driven prioritisation analysis. PLOS Computational Biology 2021. Read paper →
Related software: vacamole
European Scenario Modelling Hub
The European COVID-19 Scenario Modelling Hub brought together modelling teams across Europe to produce ensemble projections for policy planning. Multi-model approaches were used to capture uncertainty in epidemic projections and inform public health planning across multiple countries.
Sherratt, K., et al. Characterising information gains and losses when collecting multiple epidemic model outputs. Epidemics 2024. Read paper →
Related software: European Scenario Hub
Non-Pharmaceutical Interventions
NPI Evaluation During COVID-19
Quantifying the impact of non-pharmaceutical interventions — lockdowns, school closures, and bans on public gatherings — was critical for informing government decisions on intervention timing and stringency. This work estimated NPI effectiveness across European countries during the first wave and examined exit strategies from strict social distancing measures.
Flaxman, S., Mishra, S., Gandy, A., et al. Estimating the effects of non-pharmaceutical interventions on COVID-19 in Europe. Nature 2020. Read paper →
Dighe, A., Cattarino, L., Cuomo-Dannenburg, G., et al. Response to COVID-19 in South Korea and implications for lifting stringent interventions. BMC Medicine 2020. Read paper →